On Friday, a mob of shoppers will brave the brisk weather and begin storming discount department stores, shopping centers, and malls—all looking for some early holiday bargains.
The day after Thanksgiving has traditionally been referred to as“Black Friday’’, so called because it is the day that retailers go from the red into the black; that is, begin to see some profits, as shoppers tear through the stores, buying up merchandise like there’s no tomorrow. Or so they hope
Originally, “Black Friday’’ as it relates to shopping was thought to have been first used in Philadelphia during the 1960’s, when police had to contend with heavy traffic during the holiday rush hour.
“Black Friday’’, according to The American Heritage Dictionary of Idioms, dates back to September 24, 1869, when stock market manipulators Jay Gould and James Fisk tried to buy up or corner all the gold sold on the open market, causing its collapse. Ever since, the adjective “black’’ has been associated with any day involving great confusion or activity, such as Black Monday (October 19, 1987), when the stock market experienced a 508-point plunge, the biggest drop since the Great Depression.
However the term started,“Black Friday’’ kicks off this week; but much like last year, retail sales are expected to be down, not much of a surprise considering the unemployment rate has leaped to 10.2 percent, the highest its been in 26 years.
ShopperTrak’s Retail Traffic Index (SRTI) estimates total retail foot traffic during the holiday season will be down 4.2 percent compared with last year
Still, data from ShopperTrak shows sales shouldn’t be as dim as it was in 2008. Last year, for example, total foot traffic was down a crippling 15.4 percent compared with 2007.
And much like last year, deep discounts on popular merchandise will available at many retail stores.
When Wal-Mart swings open its doors on Friday morning, shoppers will be able to scoop up a 50″ 720p Sanyo for $598, a Sony Cyber-Shot DSC S930 10.0 Megapixel Digital Camera for $79.00, and a Toshiba laptop for $398. Best Buy, another electronics retail giant, will be offering the Dynex 32-inch 720p LCD HDTV for $299.99, and the Dynex 40-inch 1080p LCD HDTV for $499.99. At Kohl’s, cashmere sweaters will sell for $34.99; while toys by Fisher-Price, Playskool, Barbie, Hot Wheels, Matchbox, Play-Doh, Tonka and other brands will be slashed by as much as 50 percent.
While it’s an obvious benefit to have such bargains on Black Friday, especially with consumers tightening their belts during this down economy, others question whether offering such steep discounts on the weekend after Thanksgiving might be hurting retailers more than it actually helps.
In their current Retail Almanac, Plunkett Research Ltd, a provider of market research and industry analysis trends, makes the point that last year when most retailers pulled out all the stops in offering merchandise at rock-bottom prices on Black Friday, it had the cumulative effect of leaving consumers with little else to spend in December.
According to ShopperTrak, last year’s holiday retail sales slid by 5.9 percent, in one of the worst shopping seasons in decades. MasterCard Inc.'s SpendingPulse unit, meanwhile, estimated (excluding automobile sales), retail sales fell by 5.5 percent last November; and by as much as eight percent in December leading up to Christmas Eve.
Despite the shaky economy and with most analysts predicting more gloomy retail sales, there is some reason to hope sales might pick up steam this holiday season.
In a press release, Bill Martin, co-founder of ShopperTrak, wrote “while retailers still haven’t recovered from this blow, energy prices have retreated, foreclosures have been stabilized, unemployment is rising at a slower rate, and our data shows retail traffic has been slowly increasing which indicates consumer sentiment could be rising heading into the season."
–Bill Lucey
WPLucey@gmail.com
Holiday Shopping Footnotes:
• 74 million shopped on Black Friday last year.
• In 2008, 10.6 percent claim they finished their shopping by Cyber Monday (the Monday immediately following Black Friday).
• One in four Black Friday shoppers were in the stores by 5 a.m.
• 50.9 percent purchased clothing or accessories on Black Friday in 2008.
• 54.7 percent of consumers visited discount stores on Black Friday in 2008.
• $372.57, was the average amount consumers spent on Black Friday in 2008.
• Credit card use will fall by an estimated 10 percent this holiday season.
• Last year, 46 percent counterfeit receipts were used to make a return.
• Retailers will lose $2.7 billion this year due to return fraud.
• 41 percent of retailers say they have scaled back on their inventory.
• 80 percent of online retailers will offer free shipping deals.
• The average American will spend $683 on holiday items.
• 40 percent of Americans begin shopping before Halloween
• The average person will spend $139.91 on gift cards this holiday season. Last year, the average was $147.33.
• 49.3 percent of shoppers between the ages of 18-24 will conduct their holiday shopping online.
• For the majority of retailers, the holiday season typically represents anywhere between 25-40 percent of annual sales.
• Two in five Americans last year conducted some last minute shopping online.
• 530,000 Retail jobs were lost in 2008, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Source: National Retail Federation
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Top 10 shopping days in 2008
1.) Black Friday-November 28, 2008
2.) Friday, December 26, 2008
3.) Super Saturday, December 20, 2008
4.) Saturday, December 13, 2008
5.) Tuesday, December 23, 2008
6.) Monday, December 22, 2008
7.) Black Saturday-November 29, 2008
8.) Saturday, December 27, 2008
9.) Sunday, December 21, 2008
10.) Saturday, December 6, 2008
Source: ShopperTrak
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