You’re usually skating on thin ice when you rely on pollsters for election accuracy, especially when it comes to measuring Trump/MAGA supporters, but Democrats, according to NBC News, hold a 52% advantage (over the Republicans 43%) to control Congress in the upcoming midterm elections; a nine-percentage point lead.
Election maharishi, Nate Silver, publisher of the independent newsletter, Silver Bulletin, predicts that Democrats hold a 95% probability of winning the House.
Silver gives the Democrats a 76.1 % of winning the Senate, with Republicans reduced to a 23.9 % chance of controlling the Senate.
Decision Desk HQ is giving the Democrats a 57 % chance of winning control of the Senate.
What’s at stake?
Republicans control both the House and Senate.
House of Reps.
· All 435 seats are being contested in the House of Representatives.
· Republicans hold 218 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives (Dems: 214), maintaining a narrow majority.
Senate
· 35 of the 100 seats are up for grabs: 33 regularly scheduled elections and two special elections (Florida and Ohio).
· Republicans control the U.S. Senate, with 53 seats against 47 in the Democratic caucus—45 Democrats and two independents who caucus with them.
· According to the Cook Political Report, seven states are considered Senate toss-ups: Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas. Six of these toss-ups are held by Republicans.
· Democrats need to flip a net four Republican-held Senate seats to take control—while holding their own seats.
· Since WWII, the party in power has lost both chambers during the midterm elections in 1946, 1954, 1994, and most recently in 2006.
· Following the economic depression or “Panic” of 1893, the 1894 midterms produced the biggest congressional electoral shift in U.S. history, measured by House seats changing hands. President Grover Cleveland’s Democrats lost 127 House seats and also lost control of the Senate. Republicans took control of both chambers.
· Other big losses: FDR lost 72 House seats in 1938; Barack Obama lost 63 seats in 2010, Harry Truman, lost 56 in 1946 and Bill Clinton lost 54 in 1994
· According to the Pew Research Center, what matters most to voters in the upcoming midterms, include: the economy (84 %), the future of democracy (73 %); health care (68%); education (62%), immigration (59%); and foreign policy (57%)
—Bill Lucey
October 28, 2026
Source: Silver Bulletin, Roll Call, NPR, Pew Research Center
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